«Цветная революция» в России: перспективы неопатримониальной трансформации политического режима

Abstract

This article touches upon the dynamics of development contemporary political regime in Russia and examines its transformation possibilities. The political process of the state is characterized by the struggle of the different clans, elites and interested groups, that penetrates in formal and non-formal patron-client networks and compete each other for the capturing of the state and set a major goal is a seized political body on an exclusive base. Recent political mode in Russia was installed and institutionalized in the early 2000s. The state course of the new president V. Putin had oriented on stabilization political regime and ends successfully. Clientele of the state leader, included power structure, won the struggle for the state capture from the oligarchic groups and didn't allow them to realize counterrevolution policy and transition to the competitiveness neopatrimonialsm. Despite the stabilization political order, removal alternative clientele from the rent-seeking process and the transfer of power to successor, Kremlin in 2011–2012 faced to contradictions inside its political elites. Weakening the government institutions and reducing control over opposition is led to large-scale political protests against power state. Mass protests demonstrated the crisis of legitimacy valid political regime and forced head clientele to hunting new legitimating models. The power decided to appeal to the citizens' national identity. Since 2014 Russia conducted the series of aggression actions on the world policy area, among which annexing Crimea, occupations Donbas, military intervention in Syria and interference in American president's elections. These measures were effective for the Putin's neopatrimonial system and consolidated elites and society around president and his bureaucracy machine. Meanwhile the Russian actions led to the strong confrontation between Moscow and West. Civilized political community imposed the sanctions against Russia. Special attention concentrates on USA economical embargo that directed on the central patron-client network and primarily stakeholders rent-orient political system. It's possible that the fourth Putin's cadence will be final. The dominant power group will collide with the quest a new patron leader in the international sanction conditions and circumstances awakening the alternative influences groups. Thereby, in the coming years we can see the realize of scenario the transformation political regime in the state, including possibility the color revolution or power rationalization.